According to the statistical data within the scope of ALD, up to now, China's alumina production capacity has reached 103 million tons, breaking the 100 million tons mark, and the operating capacity has reached 83.2 million tons. Currently, there are still new alumina projects under construction, so the completed capacity will further increase. Currently, the operating capacity of imported mines is up to 52 million tons. If this operating capacity is maintained, the annual demand for imported mines will be around 140 million tons. If there is a demand for new production capacity, the procurement volume of imported mines this year is expected to reach 150 million tons.
The newly increased production capacity in the past two years has all relied on imported minerals as raw materials, which has also led to a significant increase in the demand for imported minerals. In 2022, China's import of bauxite reached a record amount of 125697800 tons. According to the rough statistics of ALD, the order quantity of ore purchased by 15 domestic purchasers has also reached over 130 million tons.
According to the latest customs data, in the first two months of 2023, China imported 23617100 tons of bauxite, of which the import volume of bauxite in January reached a record of 12.3809 million tons, and the import volume of Guinea bauxite reached 9.26 million tons, which is also a record high. In February, Guinea imported 7917800 tons of bauxite, ranking second in history. The record import volume in these two months seems to prove the point that Guinea has the ability to transport, barge, and load more than 8 million tons of bauxite during the dry season.
From the perspective of Guinea's import volume in each month, the import volume fluctuated and increased, and the import volume significantly decreased during the rainy season. However, even so, the overall import volume increased significantly. In addition, mining companies are also actively seeking ways to solve the problem of declining shipments caused by the long rainy season. For example, the Belt Operation and Maintenance Team of Chinalco Guinea has successively carried out more than 20 major technical transformations such as ore particle size control, which has better solved the problems of strong ore impact, blocking and scattering in the rainy season, as well as dust flying in the dry season, and established a stable production system adapted to two extreme weather conditions, namely, the rainy season and the dry season.
Therefore, it can be made clear that in 2023, the demand for imported minerals in China will greatly increase, and the increase in import volume meets the expectations of market participants. However, the market changes rapidly, and we can only hold this expectation to wait for market validation. However, if there are changes that do not meet the expectations, it is also a part of the market that should exist.
